The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects a £28 billion haul from stamp duty over the coming years. However, seasoned analysts and market observers are casting doubt on this figure. The key issue is that the housing market is not showing signs of the sustained activity or price growth needed to generate such revenue levels.
Stamp duty receipts depend heavily on transaction volumes and property prices. Recent data points to a cooling market, with buyer demand softening amid higher interest rates and affordability challenges. According to This is Money Mortgages, experts argue the OBR’s numbers may be inflated to present a rosier fiscal outlook, particularly benefiting the Treasury’s narrative under Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
For property investors, this means caution is warranted. Overestimating stamp duty income could lead to unexpected tax policy shifts or budget adjustments down the line. The government might seek alternative revenue sources if property taxes underperform, potentially impacting investor costs. Our data at Prop AI Deals shows that transaction volumes in key regions have plateaued or declined slightly, reinforcing the scepticism around such a high stamp duty forecast.
Investors should monitor market liquidity and pricing trends closely. The £28 billion figure should not be taken as a given but rather as a scenario on the optimistic end of the spectrum. Conservative planning around tax liabilities remains prudent in the current environment.
Source: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-15623985/Experts-say-28bn-stamp-duty-haul-simply-not-happen.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
